Family Size Children of Israel by Exodus:
Compiled by Roger M. Pearlman CTA
author of the Recent Complex Creation and avail. soon: Torah of Intelligent design.
Tehachapi Torah Center
Rosh Hodesh Sivan, 5769
Rounded Facts:
By Exodus 12:31, 600k men 20 and up (or 20-60?) including tribe of Levi.
By Exodus 30:16 (where do Rashi, Ramban.. learn 603,550?)
By Numbers 1:1- 3:43 in the second year second month, 603,550 males aged 20-60 12 tribes so
average 50k (counting Ephraim and Manashe in the 12 but not Levi)
22k First Born Males (not including tribe of Levi) (aged 1 month and up?)
22k men aged 1 month and up tribe of Levi
8k men aged 30-50 tribe of levi
By 40th year P' Pinchas still 600K men 20-60 not including tribe of Levi.
70 Jews went down to Egypt(Mizrayim) w/ father Jacob (Israel).
Exodus was 210 years later in year 2448.
80 years before the Exodus Moses Levite parents had 3 known children Miriam, Aharon, Moses. Had
Miriam not convinced them to get back together it may have been only two. How many other Levite
families had no Miriam to convince then to continue to be fruitful and multiply. The period in question
may have lasted 3? years when Pharaoh decreed the male babies be terminated at birth or drowned in
the river. Had this decree not come up, and before the onset of slavery the average levite family may
have been 8-12 similar to the other tribes. Even during period of slavery Moses 3 year older brother
Aharon had 4 boys and perhaps as many girls.
Assumptions:
Equal number female and male across age groups.
Equal number females born first.
When lists male children, equal number of unnamed female siblings.
Tribe Levi 8K 30-50 should extrapolate to 16k males aged 20-60 or 1/3 the tribal average. So Levite
males under 20 and over 60 totaled 6k, 12k including females of those ages.
Marriage age 18
Life expectancy 60-120 (In Midbar most aged 20-60 expired at 60, some older lived to enter like father
of Joshua).
A man might have more then 1 firstborn if married to more then 1 woman. (if first born include
maximum one per man effect is to: reduce ratio of first born extrapolated average number children per
family (RFS.)
Same ratio age groups tribe of levi and 12 tribes. (this assumption may be way off, starting in the final
100 of 210 years, as Levites due to diligence to Torah study, were not entrapped/enslaved like other
tribes of Israel where the more we were oppressed the more we grew'..
So 16:22k is as 600k:x x=825k = number males one month and up 12 tribes.
Double to include woman = 825k(2) = 1,650,000 (1.65M+44k levites =1.694M total Jews +0-30 days)
Divide by first born males 22K +22k females born first = 44k
=37.5 per family 12 Tribes less RFS.(close to 36 = 6 sextuplets, Medrash we gave birth to 6 at a time)
Factors:
First born may have been more likely to take the initiative, bare responsibility and brunt of assaults.
A net % of firstborn above average in these incidents would RFS.
Losses to murder by Egyptians may have been higher % firstborn.
Losses to tribe of Manasseh as per Medrash 400 years after covenant between the parts, 30 years prior
to the Exodus may have had higher % of first born.
Losses at Plague of Darkness based on Medrash may have had higher % firstborn.
Losses at Eigel HaZahav 3K + those found guilty may have been higher % firstborn.
Miscarriages, forced pregnancy terminations.. if any, reduce ratio of first born, thus RFS.
Birth rate may have changed materially during 40 years prior to and 40 years after Exodus.
Otherwise would expect higher count at second census even factoring in losses to tribe/s who tried to
enter after being told no by Moses and losses after rare (10 in 40 years) sins.
Rashi on Exodus 30:16 count based on age 20 reached previous Rosh Hashana, (post Meraglim age 60
by previous RH would expire that Tisha B'Av?)
Ramban holds counted based on birthdays not age by prior RH.
600k count males 20 & up given at the Exodus (Exodus 12:31) also includes Levites, and perhaps over
60 year olds.
Either way census in Numbers increased by about 16k Levites, + number of all the tribes over 60 in
prior census if indeed counted therein.
The greater the increase, the greater the number of children reaching age 20 compared to those
reaching over 60, thus the higher the family size/fertility rate 20 years prior and increase in population
compared to 60 years prior.
Comments:
either a drop in fertility rates during 20 years prior to Exodus, or loss of any life to those under 20
plague of darkness, or ratio levite children to other 12 tribes not the same. That 12 Tribes were approx
the same number after 40 years indicates we did have similar ratio to tribe of Levi at first count,
otherwise would have been more 12 Tribe ages 20-60 after then at start of 40 years if there were so
many children at start of 40 years.)
Based on average 10 children per couple, 1 birth end of each first 10 years.
before compounding, attrition and other calibrations and adjustments.
Year 1 70 went down
Year 24 350 (18 Marrige + 1 + (10/2) = 24)
Year 48 1750
Year 72 8750
Year 96 43,750
Year 120 218,750
Year 144 1,093,750
Year 170 5,468,750
Year 196 27,343,750
Year 210+10 136,718,750 (still less then population of USA where birth control legal and being
fruitful not a Mitzvah / law of the land) .
So even after adjustments, 2M +- very conservative and reasonable estimate of Jews who left Mizrayim
at Exodus.
Speculative findings based on facts, assumptions, and other factors above:
1.7M Jews departed Mizrayim at Exodus in 2448.
Period                                                          Average Children Per Family
                                                          Tribe of Levi                     12 Tribes of Israel
20 years before and 40 years after Exodus: 2                                      2-4
100 years till 20 years before Exodus         2-8                       24-42 before RFS
210 years till 100 years before Exodus       8-12                      8-12